Ressource

  • CLIMATEditerSupprimer

    PROJECTIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE IN AN ERA OF MINIMAL CLIMATE POLICIES2016

    NORDHAUS W.D.Rapports

    incertitudes / biais, effets conséquentiels

    COWLES FOUNDATION DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 2057

    Climate change remains one of the major international environmental challenges facing
    nations. Yet nations have to date taken minimal policies to slow climate change. Moreover,
    there has been no major improvement in emissions trends as of the latest data. The
    current study uses the updated DICE model to present new projections and the impacts of
    alternative climate policies. It also presents a new set of estimates of the uncertainties
    about future climate change and compares the results will those of other integrated
    assessment models. The study confirms past estimates of likely rapid climate change over
    the next century if there are not major climate-change policies. It suggests that it will be
    extremely difficult to achieve the 2°C target of international agreements even if ambitious
    policies are introduced in the near term. The required carbon price needed to achieve
    current targets has risen over time as policies have been delayed.
     

    http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d20/d2057.pdf

  • Retour