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    Hypothetical Bias Reconsidered: Payment and Provision Uncertainties in a Threshold Provision Mechanism2014

    FLORES N.E., MITANI Y.Journaux et Revues (scientifiques)

    biens communs, incertitudes / biais, préférences déclarées, valeur d'option

    Environmental and Resource Economics
    November 2014, Volume 59, Issue 3, pp 433-454

    We extend research on the consequentiality of stated preference choices to a threshold provision mechanism for public goods. We develop a simple theoretical model of option price to analyze how option price varies with payment and provision uncertainty. We explore whether threshold provision contributions are similarly influenced by payment and provision uncertainty using an induced value contribution experiment. Results suggest that: (1) the probability of payment has a negative effect on contributions; (2) the probability of provision has a positive effect on contributions. We offer subjective beliefs regarding payment and provision as a plausible systematic explanation for hypothetical bias.

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